Has autonomous vehicle dream been postponed?

Nurcan Meşhurtürk

– In recent years, there has been an incredible development in autonomous driving technology. In Europe, which is an important market for autonomous vehicles, Germany, the United Kingdom and France contribute greatly to the growth of the sector. On the other hand, there is a slowdown in the autonomous vehicle sector due to rising costs, layoffs of drivers and safety issues. As a matter of fact, the spread of L4 autonomous driving technologies, which was previously targeted as 2021s, seems to have shifted first to 2025s and now to 2030s.

– In October 2020, Daimler Trucks partnered with Waymo to develop autonomous semi-trucks for the US market. In December 2020, Aurora Innovation acquired Uber’s autonomous driving unit, including its autonomous trucking division Uber Freight. In February 2021, Scania and TuSimple formed a partnership to test autonomous trucks on public roads in Sweden. In December 2021, Plus and IVECO formed a partnership to develop and commercialize autonomous trucks in Europe.

– The rapid development of autonomous driving technology heralds a whole new era of future transport. Driverless vehicles have the potential to transform safety, comfort and efficiency, while also reshaping the lifestyles and infrastructure of cities and communities. Autonomous vehicles equipped with advanced technology will save time and energy. A smart, safe and sustainable transport system awaits us. But we need some more time.

Europe is an important market for autonomous vehicles. Germany, the United Kingdom and France are the biggest contributors to the growth of the market. This is due to the development of advanced technologies for autonomous driving, such as artificial intelligence and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System). However, the growth of the European autonomous vehicle market may also face challenges, such as high costs, concerns over the layoff of truck drivers, and regulatory barriers related to the safety and liability of autonomous trucks. Despite these challenges, the European autonomous vehicle market is expected to grow with the increasing adoption of autonomous driving technology and growing demand.

As we have all been following closely, autonomous driving technologies represent a significant transformation from “Advanced Driver Assistance Systems” (ADAS) to more advanced automated driving. While ADAS offers a variety of features that provide safety and comfort to drivers, autonomous driving systems aim to take over the travelling experience with driverless vehicles or vehicles that significantly reduce the driver’s driving burden. This transition requires vehicles to be equipped with advanced technologies such as environmental sensing, artificial intelligence and automation. But it also has significant potential for the safety, efficiency and accessibility of future transport.

COMPANIES WORKING ON AUTONOMOUS DRIVING TECHNOLOGIES HAD A HARD TIME

Despite this incredible transformation and the enormous benefits, it will bring to society, companies working on autonomous driving technologies (both major automotive players and technology companies) have had a difficult time in the past year. There are several reasons for this. The technical problem to be solved was realised to be difficult, the solution and the steps to be taken to validate the solution were clarified, and the magnitude of the economic burden required by these steps was revealed. The cost of implementing autonomous vehicles can be a significant barrier for companies, especially small businesses. This may prevent them from investing in this technology. Autonomous vehicles require complex and advanced technology such as sensors, software and communication systems. These can be expensive to develop and maintain. They require advanced infrastructure, such as high-speed uninterrupted internet, GPS and charging stations, which can be costly to build and maintain. In addition, deploying autonomous vehicles requires training for drivers and other workers to operate and maintain the technology, which can be time-consuming and costly.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SECTOR

*In October 2020, Daimler Trucks partnered with Waymo to develop autonomous semi-trucks for the US market.

*In December 2020, Aurora Innovation announced the acquisition of Uber’s autonomous driving unit, including its autonomous trucking division Uber Freight.

*In February 2021, Scania and TuSimple announced a partnership to test autonomous trucks on public roads in Sweden.

*In September 2021, Embark Trucks and HP Inc. announced a partnership to develop autonomous driving solutions for the logistics and transport industry.

*In December 2021, Plus and IVECO announced a partnership to develop and commercialize autonomous trucks in Europe.

In the light of all these, with slowing developments, Autonomous Driving, which was at the top of the “Inflated Expectations” in Gartner’s Hype Cycle in the 2020s, now seems to have moved to the “Enlightenment” section this year.

Chart 1- Gartner’s Hype Cycle (2019 vs. 2023)

DEPLOYMENT OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING TECHNOLOGIES SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE 2030S

As a result of this slowdown and enlightenment, it would not be wrong to say that most of the companies working on these technologies focus on lower autonomous driving levels (SAE L2-L3)* and aim to generate revenue from these technologies in the short term. L4 autonomous driving technology refers to a level where the vehicle can move completely autonomously without the need for a driver under specified operational design conditions (road type, weather conditions, light level (day-night-dusk-dusk) geographical region, etc.). At this level, the vehicle can control everything within the specified operational design conditions, and even detect and overcome faulty situations without the need for driver intervention. In this direction, the spread of L4 autonomous driving technologies, which was targeted as 2021s, seems to have shifted first to 2025s and now to 2030s.

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING TECHNOLOGY CAN SAVE 30 PER CENT IN OPERATING COSTS

Despite these developments, there are still many companies that are working on L4 autonomous driving technologies and want to realise this before the 2030s. What they have in common is that they are working on heavy commercial vehicles and aim to enable driverless, 24/7 logistics between transport centres on specific routes (especially on motorways). Considering the efficiency levels in the logistics industry, a significant amount of extra efficiency can be achieved through the use of heavy commercial vehicles with L4 autonomous driving technology. For example, the average truck utilisation rate in the US is around 65%. However, by using trucks with L4 technology, it may be possible to increase this rate to over 80 per cent. In addition, trucks with L4 autonomous driving technology can save up to 30% in operating costs (especially in countries with high driver costs).

Graph 2- The economics of lorry transport

*SAE Levels of Driving Automation™ – (https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update)

LOGISTICS COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY AN AVERAGE OF 85 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR

In addition, according to a report by McKinsey & Company, the use of trucks with L4 autonomous driving technology is expected to reduce total logistics costs in the US by up to $85 billion per year on average. These statistics highlight the potential of driverless trucks in the logistics industry, showing that they can provide extra efficiency and cost savings.

A SMART, SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEM AWAITS US

The rapid development of autonomous driving technology (although it has slowed somewhat recently) heralds a whole new era of future transport. Driverless vehicles have the potential to transform safety, comfort and efficiency, while also reshaping the lifestyles and infrastructure of cities and communities. Equipped with advanced technology, autonomous vehicles will enable people to save time and energy and support environmental sustainability. Therefore, we are preparing for a journey full of curiosity and hope with the exciting future of autonomous driving. The future welcomes us with a smart, safe and sustainable transport system. But it seems we need some more time.

Nurcan Meşhurtürk

Futurists Association Audit Board Member

Commercial Vehicles / Automotive Sector Project Manager

meshurturk@turcomoney.com